My Political 2 cents

For someone who does not wish Stephen Harper to be our next Prime Minister, the latest poll numbers are not encouraging. Some polls released last night have the Conservatives ahead by as much as 6 points. Not good. I've written earlier about my dislike of the Liberals but it is still surpassed by my dislike of the Conservatives. For like minded people, I believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. If anyone remembers the last election where Stephen Harper was predicting a majority government only to have things fall apart just days before the election, we just need one of the back bench neanderthal to express some highly offensive or downright scary viewpoint and all of Ontario will run back into the arms of the devil they know. I don't think that will happen this time.

My prediction for election night will be as follows; The Conservatives will eke out a small minority government with the Liberals close behind and the NDP holding onto their seat total. The Bloc will gain seats at the expense of the Liberals and the Greens will be shut out once again.

This scenario will play out as follows; Any bill or budget that passes will have to be run through either the NDP or the Bloc (depending on seat totals and the nature of the bill, any bill that gives provinces more power will be backed by the Bloc and federalist slanted bills will be run through the NDP) the goal of the Conservatives will be to cast the Liberals as some kind of old throwback party while the Conservatives will project youth and vitality. While this is happening there will be a leadership convention in the Liberal Party which will probably be the political event of the year. Brain Tobin, Michael Ignatief, John Manley, Sheilla Cops (maybe) and Denis Coudear are all names that have been mentioned, I would prefer John Manley.

The light at the end of the tunnel that I spoke about earlier will be when the Conservatives start getting cocky and some of their 'hidden agenda' starts coming out. Capital gains tax cuts, corporate tax cuts, 'health care initiatives', and an increasing role in American foreign policy just to name a few. A strong Liberal leader who is untainted by the corruption scandals should be able to win a solid majority by mid 2007. The rise of the Conservatives is based more on disgust with the Liberals than any positive feelings towards Conservative policy. "He who rides the tiger of popular discontent can never get off" or so the saying goes. Once Ontario voters believe they have purged the Liberal party of both Chretien and Martin cronies then they will elect another Liberal government. Voting Conservative in Ontario is a protest vote, not a policy vote. (Ask Mike Harris)

The only way the Conservatives will ever win a majority will be if they moderate their platform substantially and elect a new leader from eastern Canada. Hmmm a more moderate party with a leader from eastern Canada I think there was a party like that once, Oh yeah the Progressive Conservatives. This moderation won't take place because the party's western base won't allow it, the tight rope that has to be walked by Harper et al. is very thin and is over a pool filled with sharks, with freakin' lasers attached to their heads.